Where are all the Guns & Ammo?

In the timeless words, sometimes misattributed to George Washington, rappers Dr. Dre and Eminem remind us that appearances can be deceiving  especially when surrounding the topic of firearms.  With shelves laid bare and gun cases thinning out, it may seem like they just aren't being made.  But that isn't actually true! Firearms manufacturing is booming and ammo manufacturing is running as much as possible given the shortage of primers and other key components.

Weird Year Award goes to….

When it comes to “weird years”, 2020 is the weirdest.  Without many exceptions, the past 8-10 months have been unpredictable with ups and downs and shifts that come almost daily.  We came out of a strong holiday season at the end of 2019 despite a 4-5 month dip in consumer confidence – mostly due to the results of the Virginia state elections which gave anti-gunners the majority of both the House and Senate in our state.  After an aggressive (failed) gun-banning agenda during the 2019 Special Session, gun owners and soon-to-be gun owners were purchasing at what seemed to be record numbers as the political winds had shifted and it looked like new laws would pass in a new General Assembly.  The 2^nd Amendment Sanctuary movement was fully underway and the “sleeping giant” had been awakened.

Moving into January, we saw unprecedented movement with more people getting involved in civic activism than ever before. The VCDL 2020 Lobby Day decimated previous attendance numbers as legal, lawful gunowners visited Richmond to address their concerns with lawmakers.  While a majority of the majority’s hearts and minds weren’t changed, the display of peaceful protests struck a chord with some more moderate lawmakers who took a cautionary approach at addressing some of the Northam wish list of gun control.  While many bad laws were passed, the “big one” (Assault weapons ban, magazine capacity ban, suppressor ban, etc) didn’t make it out of committee.  A deep breath was taken and there were a few weeks of calm.

Enter Covid-19

Remember the first day you went to the store and saw there was no toilet paper? Or Clorox wipes? Or hand sanitizer?  As cases started to pop up across the country - and finally in the Commonwealth – the debate started in the halls of Social Media.  Regardless of the origins, lethality, percent positivity rates, etc., we learned the phrase “social distancing” and started to stock up on masks, gloves, and other PPE.  With people starting to get nervous about crowds and limited or mis-information dominating the news cycles, tough decisions were ahead.  Yes, firearm purchases were starting to trend back up but range use was going down.  Then, the news came down from Richmond: indoor ranges are closing. It was like a kick in the ribs felt by us just like it was felt by gyms, recreation centers, pools and other entities mostly owned by locals who relied on a steady stream of customers to keep everything paid and moving forward. Closing the range and suspending membership, while keeping reduced hours in our retail stores made us step back and really spend some time on process improvement and complete projects we were behind on.  While it was awkward and stressful, we made the most out of it and emerged with a better plan on how to be flexible with re-opening whenever allowed. One of the first cracks in the dam of the firearms industry started to show: ammo availability started to decrease.

The Riots

I’m going to take an editorial tone here since this is a blog, rooted in fact, but with some opinion sprinkled in for good measure.  I’m using the word riots because while scrolling through social media or flipping on the news, there just isn’t enough back story or context to call them anything else.  Yes, there were peaceful protests happening around the country. In major cities, however, the gatherings resulting from the death of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and others had been hijacked and we watched entire blocks burn to the ground. People were injured (or killed).  Law enforcement had their hands tied and were forced to watch alongside us as lawlessness became accepted and even promoted. People who were already gun owners started to look for more ammo and purchase additional firearms.  What if that lawlessness extended into their neighborhood, on their street, in their town?  People who had never owned a gun, and never intended to, were also coming in to learn about this “dark magic” as it is portrayed by the media and anti-gunners.  First-time buyers were surprised to learn that we were not all wearing camo or plate carriers with drop-leg holster rigs.  Men and women of all ages, social, and political backgrounds were standing virtually shoulder-to-shoulder (6ft apart of course) to exercise their constitutional right to keep and bear arms.  If sh*t goes sideways, people wanted to be ready. 

The Election

Why not drop a nuclear bomb on an already upside-down year, right? With no relief on demand, and seemingly decreasing supply, the election season was a multiplying factor on what was already impossible to keep up with.  Had the framers known what was coming in 2020 with the pandemic, they probably would have offset the presidential elections by a year or so just to give us all a moment to chill.  But alas, you’ve got Donald Trump who has spoken many times about protecting the 2^nd Amendment (in fairness, often while allowing executive or administrative attacks on those very same rights) vs Joe Biden who voted in favor of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban, picked a vehemently anti-gun VP, and promised to anoint (or appoint, I always get these mixed up) Beto O’Rourke – one of the strongest and tallest gun grabber on the national stage – as his Gun Czar.  “Hell yes we’re going to take your AR-15s” – Love, Beto

I won’t delve into the contested races or legal challenges that the Trump team is fighting, but without an unprecedented reversal of a LOT of votes, there is a high probability of a Biden/Harris/O Rourke anti-gun White House. Know how I know? Gun and ammo buying is spiked up again.  There is a strong belief that, between Federal and State governments, Virginians gun rights will be under attack. Concealed Carry Pistols, home defense guns, MSR/AR platforms… everything is in demand. We are answering hundreds of messages a week that start with “Can you get…” with short and sweet “no”. It almost doesn’t matter what you are asking for, the answer is probably No. Not trying to be rude, but there are a lot of people coming late to this party! Things are going to change!

The Future

In talking with manufacturers, component manufacturers, distributors, and industry insiders, we can say with high confidence that this current state will get worse and will be going well into next year.  Not January 3^rd or 20^th, but through the summer of 2021 and potentially beyond.  The perfect storm of the above factors just has the entire supply chain digging out of a hole that is getting deeper every day.  Its not 2 steps forward, 1 step back – its 2 steps forward, 20 steps back.  What we have in the cases and on the shelves is what we have. EVERYTHING you want is on order – a lot of it since March/April/May.  We put in Purchase Orders in March for October/Nov/Dec and have only received about 2% of the items where in other years we would have received 100% and then some.  You need to buckle up and strap down for an extended period of demand far exceeding supply. Please understand the purchase limits and restrictions on Ammo is necessary to keep what limited supply we have available for those purchasing a firearm, using the range, or taking a course.  At some point, we will just be out.

Changes for SafeSide – Black Friday

While I’m usually done with Black Friday marketing by Nov 1 and would be spending most of my time in this part of November tweaking the website, setting up promotions in the system, organizing huge stacks of held-back inventory, and ironing out any last-minute staffing issues for our 6am sale kickoff, this year none of that really makes sense.  So, we will not be having a traditional Black Friday sales event after Thanksgiving.  Yes, we’re working to get some last-minute deals in a few categories, and we’ll be bringing back Range Punch Cards and training promotions, but there won’t be lines out the door and none of us will be there at 6am on 11/27.  Expect a simple flyer to be out Thanksgiving week and for the doors to open at 9am. Many of the items will be available for purchase online only to discourage too many people swarming the store at once.  This is usually one of our favorite days of the year because we get to watch months of planning unfold with our wonderful customers. It will just look different in 2020.

Changes for SafeSide – Range

We’re also trying to make some smart, strategic decisions about how we operate the indoor ranges.  You will see some changes (outlined below) that are meant to streamline our operations as we project decreased range utilization due to ammo availability and pricing.  People are still shooting, but our daily average is off about 25%.  We want to be best positioned for long-term success and to be good stewards of what we have, so the following items will be changed/updated over the next week or so.

1. Online Reservations.  We continue to encourage the use of the online reservation system. To date, we’ve been charging $10 for the reservation (non-members only), then applying that to your range lane fee of $22.  This will be adjusted up to $20, but that will cover your hour on the range.  For walk in customers, the price for 1 hour will go up to $25.  So those who have been doing reservations will save a few bucks, and those that don’t have a reservation will pay a few bucks more.  We are still working on the details on how to apply our Veteran/LE discount and Ladies Day promotional rates under this updated rate structure.
2. Reservation Flexibility.  We have maintained a policy that reservations are non-refundable and non-changeable. We will hold fast on the non-refundable part, but we are relaxing the reservation changes policy.  If you can’t make it to your reservation and you let us know BEFORE the reservation start time, we will gladly move you to another slot. You do need to pick the date/time we can’t hold it open indefinitely and it will need to be within the next 30 days.  If you are unable to make your reservation due to COVID-19 symptoms, we will be happy to schedule you a minimum of 15 days in the future. Ultimately, we hope to have this as a self-serve option on the website, but that likely won’t be ready until early next year.
3. Lane Availability. This impacts the Roanoke facility only at this time.  As you may know, during the shut down we adjusted part of our 101 yard bay to accommodate pistol shooters as well up to 50 yards on the “hybrid” lanes.  In order to eliminate unnecessary operation of ventilation equipment, we only offer hybrid and rifle lanes from 9am-noon Mon-Fri.  We are going to implement this same scenario from 6pm-8pm during weekdays.  We also may continue the use of Bay 1 with pistol shooters throughout the day if reservation volume doesn’t warrant opening up and running another 8 lanes for pistol shooters.  So back to reservations, having those in and on the board will determine availability for the day and may limit walk-in space if we are at capacity.  Be aware that even if you have selected a “Pistol” lane, you may be assigned a hybrid lane at check-in if that is what is available.
4. Waiver Compliance. When you want to use the SafeSide Indoor Range, we need to make sure you are aware of the safety protocols and agree to behave accordingly during your visit.  Unfortunately, a lot of folks don’t complete this prior to arrival, which significantly impacts the check-in process for you and anyone else waiting for the same start time. We are making changes to the website that will check to make sure you have a waiver completed prior to finalizing a Range reservation or booking a class that requires range time.  You can now complete the waiver on the website and it will be applied to your customer account in real-time. That will allow you to knock it out then complete the reservation/registration process.  Remember, there is a $2 1-time fee on your first visit for completion of the waiver. 

I’m hoping that 2020 keeps the weirdness award, and that 2021 brings us back to a sense of normalcy.  It’s too soon to tell how long the Covid-19 impact will affect day-to-day operations or how the combination of the economic, politics, and supply chain will impact the flow of firearms and ammunition.  But I will say, if you are thinking about purchasing a firearm or starting to train to feel more comfortable with guns in general – I would expedite the process or at least get it started.  At this point, there isn’t the luxury of waiting for the market to return to normal. The trajectory is up and its going to keep going up for a long while.  Expect prices across the board to go up as people start or continue their search for guns, ammo, and gear.  We’ll do the best we can to manage what we get and try to distribute as equitably as possible.  Stick with us and stay on the Safe Side!

Got thoughts on this topic? Want to spit hate? Email me and I might share what you have to say! mitch@safesidetactical.com