As we cross over the threshold into August (and for the last month or so), conspiracy theorists on the pro-gun side are wishing into existence a new, secret attack on Virginia gun rights by posting unfounded opinions about what the Governor and Democrats in Virginia's House/Senate have planned for the August special session. This session, called for by Governor Northam (D), is set to begin on August 18th, 2020.  I've got some theories of my own, which I'll share below.  You decide what to believe... this is an opinion piece also!

Theory #1: The Assault Weapons Ban (AWB) is coming back and will be rammed through this month.

OK, but why... The Senate Judiciary committee discussed this bill and even many Democrats agreed that it had its "issues".  Jamming legislation on so-called "Assault Weapons" full of side-projects like magazine capacity, silencers, and binary triggers - coupled with some really bad definitions that would have sweeping unintended consequences on things like making grandpa's Ranch gun illegal - made a majority of committee members uncomfortable.  They didn't understand the nuances in the bill's language, and thus referred it to the Crime Commission to revisit during the 2021 session. Look, this WILL be back, BUT... there is no logical or calculable reason to bring this up in the special session. Yes, last year's special session called by the Governor was ALL ABOUT guns... and the Republican members shut that down in about 90 minutes.  What happened next? Democrats ran on this and gained majorities in both houses.  With the Presidential and Warner's US Senate seat on the ballot in November, democrats would be crazy to make guns an issue in August leading into September - just 2 months out from the election.  Republicans and closet pro-gun democrats would have an unprecedented influx of cash and DRIVE to get out the gun vote.  Right now, many on the pro-gun side are already back to sleep after a busy January and for Virginia to stay BLUE, democrats need that to continue on for a few more months.

Additionally, the 3-way power factor is LOCKED IN for the next session.  Virginia will have a Democrat Governor, and Democrat-controlled House & Senate.  You can bet your bottom dollar there won't be a surprise showing of "reason" among committee members when it comes to the AWB next year.  Committee members will be strong-armed into compliance, or they'll lose their seat. I'm sure behind closed doors they've already received their tongue-lashing.  The few that had a spine will have to face 1 final decision between standing up for the Gun Rights of their constituents or shredding the Constitution by playing nice with the extremists in their party.  It's a safer play to do in Jan-March when state elections are still in the distant future at the end of 2021. Plenty long enough for the gun vote to go back to sleep again.

My prediction: the Special Session will be about the Budget and the State's response to Covid-19. Maybe sprinkle in a little element of police reform - which I don't think will go very far, but there is a bigger risk to many politicians to NOT bring it up.  You can view the complete Special Session Legislative Agenda at this link and watch to see if anything changes.  What do I base this prediction on? All of the above AND the fact that when I spoke to several Democrat politicians (or staff) about the AWB , they all indicated that it wasn't even on their radar until pro-gun folks started calling/email about it.  Also, there is nothing posted in LIS regarding firearms for the upcoming special session.  Either the anti-gun wing of the Democrat Party is planning the biggest surprise of the legislative year OR they have assessed this is a lose-lose and are going to sit on it until January.

Theory #2: The Governor is going to close indoor Gun Ranges.

Man, this again. If you attended any of our Gun Owners' Town Hall session you got the break-down on why this was a "Slippery slope" bill, but not a threat to SafeSide or any of the privately-owned ranges that we have visited across the Commonwealth.  It was just a big middle finger to the NRA HQ range. Do I think that down the road, more state restrictions on indoor firing ranges could come? Yes. (especially true if we don't vote for pro-gun candidates). Do I think August is when it will happen? No. See above from a strategy part - and plan for indoor ranges to still be open after the Special Session.

Theory #3: Changes are coming to Concealed Carry Reciprocity.

No, they're not. At least, I don't think so. One of the things that Lobby Day 2020 proved was that "we" could peacefully assemble and protest without acting like a bunch of wackos.  Say all of my analysis from Theory #1 above was wrong - why would Concealed Carry Reciprocity make ANY sense at all to push into a special session.  The Attorney General already has the power (in most cases) to make or break reciprocal agreements (search for Herring 2015 Virginia Concealed) but succumbed to a more centrist Democrat Governor (McAulliffe). During the 2020 Legislative Session, HB 569 was introduced to requires the AG to review these agreements on a specific basis (where as now he "can").

In Virginia, a Special Session of the legislature operates very similar to a regular session, just on a truncated time-table.  There is no "magic button" that the Governor can push to make something go through (or he would have done that last year during that Special Session).  Bills still have to be submitted into the LIS system and voted on, ultimately with a majority of each house voting in favor.  Restrictions/regulations/laws on guns can't just "happen" unless they are part of a bill, or offered as an amendment.  Yes, its possible that something could pop up and I could be wrong (and I am glad to see people paying attention to threats to our freedom in the near future and into next year). In reality, the ongoing situation regarding Covid-19 and the budgeting issues that this pandemic has created for our State will probably take up most, if not all, of the legislative session's energy and time.